Turkey after the Coup

By: Tara O'Herlihy, UNA-NCA Program Assistant

This past Friday, the world watched as the military coup in Turkey unfolded. Although the government regained control the next day, the coup attempt drew onto the global stage problems in Turkey and the Middle East and has implications for global relations. In light of this, on July 20, the Brookings Institution held a discussion titled Turkey after the Coup Attempt:Implications for Turkish Democracy, Foreign Policy, and the Future of theSyrian War. The panel, composed of Brookings Foreign Policy Senior Fellows Fiona Hill, Kemal Kirişci, Ömer Taşpinar, Shadi Hamid, and Michael O’Hanlon, took turns detailing their own perspectives on the recent events, from the background of political struggles to military implications.

Turkey is no stranger to coups, with the most recent “e-coup” occurring in 2007. Almost every decade since the 1960s has seen some sort of coup, yet this latest coup was still shocking. The notion of a military coup is unexpected today, and there was a surprising level of immediate violence, with 290 people killed over the course of the weekend. Hamid remarked that the Turkish people have quickly adapted to a coup-free narrative, which explains why the Turkish people quickly rallied behind President Erdoğan. However, there is another narrative also lingering in the Turkish coup; that an Islamic government cannot stay in power through democracy. Groups such as ISIL use this narrative to support their physical caliphate, and undermine democratic governments in the Middle East.

While the coup may support this ISIL narrative, the motives and reasoning behind the coup are still unclear. Currently, the Turkish government is placing the blame on Fethullah Gülen, a self-exiled Turk living in Pennsylvania. The government claims that he and his Gülen school graduates masterminded the coup and that Gülen used his spiritual influence in Turkey. In this vein, Turkey is calling for the U.S. to extradite Gülen to Turkey, where he will face charges of treason. However, at this time, there is no agreed upon leader behind the coup.

After the coup was put down and President Erdoğan returned, the previous institutional failures and partisan divides became evident. Since 2013, there have been signs of institutional failure from the handling of the corruption allegations. There was a lack of professionalism then among the various institutions in the government, and this now has played out through Erdoğan’s massive purge. While the numbers are continuously changing, already there are about 50,000 government employees and officials who have been arrested or detained in connection to the coup. Many of these have been detained due to their connection with Gülen schools, which has led to a purge of over one third of the government’s institutions.

The effects of this coup and the government’s reaction may spread around the world. First, due to Erdoğan’s detainment of around 14,000 military officers and almost a third of the generals, the Turkish military is at its weakest point in recent history. This has grave implications for current fighting against Kurdish insurgency in the South and ISIL cells. Turkey has also been one of the strongest NATO military powers, but not after these detentions. Currently, Turkey is seeking EU membership, but the coup is enough to create a pause in the process. If they reinstate the death penalty in order to punish the participants, then Turkey’s hope of joining the EU will be lost. Additionally, the extradition battle over Gülen may severely hurt relations with the U.S. The U.S. has so far been working with Turkey, but they are demanding that laws be followed, and are asking for some proof of Gülen’s guilt. Additionally, treason is not listed as one of the cases in which the U.S. is required to extradite to Turkey. If the U.S. does not agree to send Gülen to Turkey, Erdoğan will most likely react strongly, which may ruin the U.S.-Turkey relationship.

It has not even been a week since the coup started, and its effects will continue to roll out over the next couple weeks and months. Taşpinar believes that some detainees will be released, as Erdoğan overreacted once he reclaimed power. He will say that now is the time for a strong leader, and rely on the Presidential system and his support from the public to retain his power. While Erdoğan does have strong support in the country and from the international community after the coup, there is a solid group within Turkey that wanted the coup to succeed. The lack of unity within the coup led to its failure, but the large number of top military officials that were involved demonstrate that there is tension in the country. It did not stem from the Islamist vs secular tensions, yet the coup has and will most likely continue to aggravate these tensions.

The future of Turkey and its role in the Middle East and the rest of the world is evolving now, and it will be up to Erdoğan, his government, and the Turkish citizens to decide if the non-coup narrative can continue and if the country will stabilize.